Technology Aug 04, 2026 · 1 min read

Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction markets"

Fire experts warn such markets could incentivize arson.

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Ars Technica
by Cyrus Farivar
Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction markets"

Several US senators have written a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), inquiring about the agency’s “plans to crack down on prediction markets” that offer “contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires.”

“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering, all so the rich and powerful can profit,” wrote the group of senators, who represent Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

The document specifically cites that Polymarket hosted bets in January 2025 on the wildfires in Los Angeles, and it mentions another website which specifically accepts “simulated bets” exclusively on California wildfires.

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This article was originally published by Ars Technica and written by Cyrus Farivar .

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