One Nation’s rise puts the next election in ‘unknown territory’ – but does Pauline Hanson really have a path to government?

Data shows the rightwing party faces an obstacle in the form of urban seats – and the effect of preference flows is harder to predict

• Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast

One Nation’s spectacular rise from a distant 6% of the vote in the last election to first or second in some recent polls has upended Australian politics. It has also made it a lot harder to predict what exactly will happen at the next election.

Traditionally, pollsters and election experts would look at how preferences flowed in previous elections when estimating two-party preferred numbers, or translating polling into seat projections. This was fairly predictable when almost every seat would come down to a contest between Labor and the Coalition.