Surprisingly benign UK inflation data signals a softer Iran war hit than feared

War’s impact on UK cost of living more muted than first forecast suggesting fuel price rises have failed to spill out more widely across UK plc

• UK inflation stays at 2.8% as slowing food prices offset transport costs

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As soon as Iran choked off oil supplies through the strait of Hormuz at the start of March, there were dire warnings about rocketing UK inflation and the drastic action the Bank of England might take to rein it in.

At one point, investors were expecting as many as three quarter-point rises in interest rates before the end of the year – a sharp turnaround from earlier forecasts of rate cuts.